Monday, February 28, 2005
How to be an Oscar winner*
*Winner of the ballot at your friendly neighborhood Oscar party, that is. I have no advice as to how one might go about actually winning an Oscar. Other than “Be Hilary Swank.” Or “Don’t be Martin Scorsese,” as the case may be.
Anyway, after I emerged victorious by picking the most winners last night (thanks in part to Million Dollar Baby’s Best Picture coup—after its many wins, and after Eastwood took Best Director, everyone was gunning for The Aviator, including me, but I was told I couldn’t change my original vote), I figured I should pass my winning strategy on to others. You see, I think a lot of people are confused about the best way to pick Oscar winners. Namely, they think they must watch all of the nominated films in order to make an informed decision. But I am here to tell you that this is simply not true.
In fact, I’ve come to believe that watching the films can actually be a detriment when it comes to picking the winners—and I am living proof of this theory. Three years ago, when I was a screen editor and had therefore seen most of the nominated films, I did much, much worse in my predictions than I did this year, when I had seen a grand total of four of the films nominated in any category (Ray, A Very Long Engagement, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and Spider-Man 2). However, I informed myself in other ways, which I believe were much more valuable when it comes to making predictions. Witness my stellar Oscar-predicting strategy:
1. Listen to NPR. In the months leading up to the Oscars, NPR ran stories on The Sea Inside, Million Dollar Baby and Born Into Brothels, each of which won in their respective big-ticket categories. If it’s good enough to be mentioned on NPR, it’s good enough to win an Oscar, apparently.
2. Pick whatever Chase picks. Chase is the undisputed king of Oscar predictions—he completely smoked us all in the aforementioned ballot of three years ago. This is because Chase actually takes the time and effort to evaluate the merits of artistic effort against factors such as history and Hollywood politics. And I guess you could do that, too, but it’s so much easier to just ride his coattails to success. (Note: This strategy will not work if you happen to be betting against Chase, but I would not recommend doing that. You will probably lose.)
3. Spread the wealth. Sure, The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby were good movies (not that I’ve seen either of them), but they can’t possibly win everything. So choose some other critically acclaimed movies to win in lesser categories. I haven’t the faintest idea what the original score of Finding Neverland sounds like, but since it’s not going to win in any of the bigger categories, why not give it a nod here? It seems that many of the members of the Academy employed similar logic.
4. But don't spread it too much. When in doubt, you can never go wrong with picking one of the favorites. Usually, voting a straight Golden Globes ticket can also get you a long way, although that obviously wouldn’t have worked too well this year.
Next year, my friends, I hope you are able to put this strategy to good use and emerge victorious at your local Oscar party. I just hope, for your sake, that they have better prizes than the one I attended. (When I asked Chris, who hosted the party, what my prize was for winning, he responded, “You get to clean the kitchen!” Needless to say, I politely declined. I think he was just bitter because the Million Dollar Baby win allowed me to beat him at the last minute.)
*Winner of the ballot at your friendly neighborhood Oscar party, that is. I have no advice as to how one might go about actually winning an Oscar. Other than “Be Hilary Swank.” Or “Don’t be Martin Scorsese,” as the case may be.
Anyway, after I emerged victorious by picking the most winners last night (thanks in part to Million Dollar Baby’s Best Picture coup—after its many wins, and after Eastwood took Best Director, everyone was gunning for The Aviator, including me, but I was told I couldn’t change my original vote), I figured I should pass my winning strategy on to others. You see, I think a lot of people are confused about the best way to pick Oscar winners. Namely, they think they must watch all of the nominated films in order to make an informed decision. But I am here to tell you that this is simply not true.
In fact, I’ve come to believe that watching the films can actually be a detriment when it comes to picking the winners—and I am living proof of this theory. Three years ago, when I was a screen editor and had therefore seen most of the nominated films, I did much, much worse in my predictions than I did this year, when I had seen a grand total of four of the films nominated in any category (Ray, A Very Long Engagement, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and Spider-Man 2). However, I informed myself in other ways, which I believe were much more valuable when it comes to making predictions. Witness my stellar Oscar-predicting strategy:
1. Listen to NPR. In the months leading up to the Oscars, NPR ran stories on The Sea Inside, Million Dollar Baby and Born Into Brothels, each of which won in their respective big-ticket categories. If it’s good enough to be mentioned on NPR, it’s good enough to win an Oscar, apparently.
2. Pick whatever Chase picks. Chase is the undisputed king of Oscar predictions—he completely smoked us all in the aforementioned ballot of three years ago. This is because Chase actually takes the time and effort to evaluate the merits of artistic effort against factors such as history and Hollywood politics. And I guess you could do that, too, but it’s so much easier to just ride his coattails to success. (Note: This strategy will not work if you happen to be betting against Chase, but I would not recommend doing that. You will probably lose.)
3. Spread the wealth. Sure, The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby were good movies (not that I’ve seen either of them), but they can’t possibly win everything. So choose some other critically acclaimed movies to win in lesser categories. I haven’t the faintest idea what the original score of Finding Neverland sounds like, but since it’s not going to win in any of the bigger categories, why not give it a nod here? It seems that many of the members of the Academy employed similar logic.
4. But don't spread it too much. When in doubt, you can never go wrong with picking one of the favorites. Usually, voting a straight Golden Globes ticket can also get you a long way, although that obviously wouldn’t have worked too well this year.
Next year, my friends, I hope you are able to put this strategy to good use and emerge victorious at your local Oscar party. I just hope, for your sake, that they have better prizes than the one I attended. (When I asked Chris, who hosted the party, what my prize was for winning, he responded, “You get to clean the kitchen!” Needless to say, I politely declined. I think he was just bitter because the Million Dollar Baby win allowed me to beat him at the last minute.)
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